When steel futures break through, the steel market should be highly vigilant.

At the end of the festival, the first day of the opening of the black series ended with the annihilation of the whole army. The snail dive and fell below 3600 yuan. At present, except for the hot roll, it is relatively resistant to falling. Other varieties are basically equivalent to the thread, especially the early hot varieties such as iron ore and coke. All are above 3%. From the perspective of capital flow, iron ore bears the brunt, with more than 1.4 billion funds fleeing madly, but coke and thread received 402 million and 210 million capital backflows respectively.

The spot market price fell slightly with the disk. Except for the normal shipments in some regions, the trading atmosphere in most regions was generally weak, and the actual shipments were relatively small. During the time window period, there was basically no need for low-price bargain-hunting.

At present, although the news of the production limit after the holiday continues to emerge, the plans for environmental protection in Hebei Fengrun, Xuzhou and Tangshan in July and so on, but in the long and short duel with the inventory inflection point, there is no arousing little waves. You can see At this point, the market's sensitivity to production restrictions is declining, both in terms of time and variety restrictions, as well as the lessons learned from the lack of early implementation. The atmosphere of speculation has basically not appeared.

Judging from the rhythm of the market's operation, it is currently at the end of the rising market. Taking the snail as an example, this wave of rebound started in early April (3103 yuan on April 2), and has risen for nearly three months so far, with the highest increase approaching 600 yuan (3679 yuan on June 4), and has remained standard since then The vibration mode of the cabinet is about 100 yuan, and the failure to break upwards also shows a decline.

From the perspective of today's shape, it shows a big Yin line with a bare head and a bare foot, opening lower and walking lower, quickly falling below the previous support point, and is currently running off the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands, and is at a sensitive node of derailment.

Futures Comment: On the 29th, the threaded futures ended 3552 with a drop of 63, or 1.74%, which was 2 points lower than before noon, and increased positions by more than 40,000 lots, which was basically the same as before noon. Afternoon disk continued to weaken, the reason is on the one hand, or pessimistic expectations under the hot rainy season, on the other hand, or concerns about the increase in inventories last week; hot volume afternoon low shocks, the final close of 3560 fell 45, or 1.25% , Reduced position by 10,000 lots; Raw material coke was weak in the afternoon and ended at 1889.5, down 61.5, or 3.15%, and increased positions by more than 10,000 lots; The ore continued to decline in the afternoon, and ended at 736, decreased by 29, down 3.79%, and reduced positions by more than 40,000 hand.